Vulnerability in the Anthropocene: a prospective analysis of the need for social protection - Final Report

This report presents the results of the relation between human wellbeing (measured as income/consumption), natural capital (in particular, biodiversity, primary forest and soil) and climate in the rural areas of 7 Southeast Asian countries (Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, The Philippines, Timor-Leste and Vietnam).

The Covid-19 pandemic exposed how fragile were some of the progresses made towards reducing poverty and raised the need to better understand economic vulnerability and resilience to shocks.

The analysis combines data on income/consumption from recent representative Household Income and Expenditure Surveys with a rich set of other georeferenced data that measure natural capital and climate. Using Machine Learning techniques (in particular, regression forests and its interpretation through surrogate models) we classify rural households in 8 groups, characterised by distinct between-group living standards, and reflecting different environmental characteristics.