Do social protection programs reduce conflict risk? Evidence from a large-scale safety net program in rural Ethiopia
Do social protection programs reduce conflict risk? Evidence from a large-scale safety net program in rural Ethiopia
This study assesses the impact of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), one of the largest public works programs in the world, on conflict risk. Prior research on the relationship between safety net programs and conflict risk in low- and middle income countries has been limited and yielded mixed results. By employing difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded data on conflict events, the authors analyze the effects of the PSNP on violent events, demonstrations, and conflict-related fatalities. They find that the PSNP did not significantly alter the risk of violent events; however, it had a negative impact on demonstrations (protests and riots) as well as fatalities. These effects are most pronounced during 2014-18, coinciding with widespread protests in Amhara and Oromia, the two largest regions in Ethiopia. Their future work will explore the underlying mechanisms driving these outcomes to better understand the complex relationship between safety nets and conflict risk.