Work Histories and Pension Entitlements in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay

The authors propose alternative methods to project pension rights and implement them in Chile and Uruguay and partially in Argentina. The authors use incomplete work histories databases from the social security administrations to project entire lifetime work histories. The authors first fit linear probability and duration models of the contribution status and dynamic linear models of the income level. The authors then run Monte Carlo simulations to project work histories and compute pension rights. According to results, significant swathes of the population would not access to fundamental pension benefits at age 65, if the current eligibility rules were strictly enforced.