Ukraine Social Protection: Current & Future Needs

The necessity to support displaced persons (IDPs) and to provide social assistance and pension payments has put the welfare system in Ukraine under extreme stress. The invasion has resulted in massive employment losses. According to ILO, around 44 percent of jobs may be lost1, while according to the national statistics the wage income comprised 60 percent of total disposable income. The projected household losses from the income shock and higher cost-ofliving are estimated around 25 percent of the household budget. GDP is expected to decline by 45.1 percent through 2022, and poverty to reach as high as 58 percent in 2023. This will push millions more people onto social assistance. The brunt of the burden will be borne by the Guaranteed Minimum Income and Housing Utilities Subsidy programs, which share design features to quickly expand when incomes fall.