The outbreak of COVID-19 has had an unprecedented global impact, with almost no country left untouched. The first confirmed case in Uganda was reported on March 21, 2020. While COVID-19 is a health pandemic, the impacts of this pandemic is not limited to the health of a given population, but also has impacts on the economy and society’s well-being. This is in part because efforts to limit and contain the spread of COVID-19 has led to a slowdown in economic activity and people’s ability to make ends meet. For example, many in Uganda who rely on daily wages are unable to go out and work, and many business owners have seen supply chains disrupted and demand dry up. Against the context of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the aim of this analysis is to model the impacts of the pandemic on the most vulnerable groups in Uganda. The model estimates the impact of COVID-19 on expenditure, and subsequently poverty. The results from the microsimulation are stark with poverty rates likely to rise even further. However, the depth and length of the impact will be in part determined by the Government and international community’s response to COVID-19.