Productive Impact of Ethiopia’s Social Cash Transfer Pilot Programme

This report uses data from a two-year impact evaluation to analyse the impact of the Ethiopia Social Cash Transfer Pilot Programme (SCTPP) on household behaviour and decision-making, including agricultural production and other income-generating activities, labour supply, the accumulation of productive assets, access to credit and food security. The general framework for empirical analysis is based on a comparison of programme beneficiaries with a group of controls interviewed in 2012 and again two years later, using difference-in-difference (or double difference) estimators combined with propensity score matching methods. The findings show that the programme significantly increased household food security and decreased the number of hours children spend on household chores and activities. The programme is also associated with increases in social capital, and subjective well-being. However, the effects of the SCTPP on the accumulation of productive assets and on agricultural production are mixed. The analysis reveals important heterogeneity in programme impacts, with estimated magnitudes varying over geographical area and over gender of the household head.