The impact of social protection and poverty elimination on global tuberculosis incidence: a statistical modelling analysis of Sustainable Development Goal 1

The  End  TB  Strategy  and  the  Sustainable  Development  Goals  (SDGs)  are  intimately  linked  by  their  common targets and approaches. SDG 1 aims to end extreme poverty and expand social protection coverage by 2030. Achievement  of  SDG  1  is  likely  to  affect  the  tuberculosis  epidemic  through  a  range  of  pathways.  In this paper, we estimate the reduction in global tuberculosis incidence that could be obtained by reaching SDG 1. For that it was developed a conceptual framework linking key indicators of SDG 1 progress to tuberculosis incidence via well described risk factor pathways and populated it with data from the SDG data repository and the WHO tuberculosis database for 192 countries. The data and modelling indicates that full achievement of SDG 1 could have a substantial effect on the global burden of tuberculosis and that cross-sectoral approaches that promote poverty reduction and social protection expansion will be crucial complements to health interventions, accelerating progress towards the End TB targets.