Expansion of Djibouti’s National Family Solidarity Program: Understanding Targeting Performance of the Updated Proxy Means Test Formula

A key pillar of Djibouti’s poverty and human development strategy has been laying the ground for a social protection system through the national expansion of the Programme National Solidarite Familiale (PNSF) and the establishment of a national social registry for targeting and referral to a number of social services. In this paper, we present new Proxy Means Test (PMT) models for targeting based on the 2017 household survey data (EDAM4). The paper finds that the developed PMT models, with separate targeting formulas for rural and urban areas, appear to perform well vis-a-vis inclusion and exclusion errors observed in similar country contexts. Ex-ante simulations also show that the planned expansion of targeted social assistance program, PNSF, using the proposed targeting approaches will result in nearly 0.7 percentage point reduction in poverty nationally and 3.4- 4.1 percentage reductions in the regions.