Conditional Cash Transfers at Scale: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis in Morocco

Do conditional cash transfers enhance children’s educational outcomes? Unlike previous studies, we explore this question at scale, in the context of a sustained exposure to education transfers. A regression discontinuity analysis shows positive effects on enrollment but small and seemingly negative effects on test scores, especially for boys. Concomitant increases in class size and heterogeneity suggest that the program constrained learning by putting additional pressure on existing resources. Effects on enrollment are consistent with those of the pilot evaluation. However, adverse effects on learning emerged because no accompanying measures were taken to absorb the extra influx of students.