THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RETURNS TO CASH TRANSFERS: EVIDENCE FROM A UGANDAN AID PROGRAM1

A growing share of the world is young, poor, and underemployed. A widespread view is such people have high returns to investment but are credit constrained. Hence, aid in the form of capital or credit should expand occupational choice, self-employment and earnings. The evidence from transfers to established businesspeople is optimistic (at least for men), but little of this evidence concerns the young and unemployed. Meanwhile, the evidence from credit or highly conditional transfers of capital to the poorest is ambiguous or pessimistic. The ideal experiment— cash transfers for self-employment—is rare. To fill this gap, we randomize a large cash transfer program in northern Uganda. We follow thousands of largely unemployed youth two and four years after receiving grants worth twice their annual income. Most invest the transfers in vocations and earnings rise by at least 40%, especially among the more credit-constrained, patient, and risk-averse

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